Election night: what it means for immigration

Immigration didn’t decide Tuesday’s midterms, but the midterms could decide a lot about immigration.

With a historically quiet border, immigration was not the top issue for most voters.

The national exit poll, reported by NBC and CNN, put immigration a distant third behind the economy and democracy. Only 3% of Democratic voters named immigration the top issue facing the country. Among all voters, 14% said so, and 89% of those immigration voters cast their ballots for Republicans.

Overall, the same exit poll gives Republicans a 3-point advantage on immigration. Immigration was the only one of eight issues where voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats. It just wasn’t the issue that decided the outcome of this election. Democrats will control both the House and the Senate in January, NBC News projects.

20 True Reformer candidates have won so far

Out of 40 True Reformer candidates on the ballot, 20 have won, 9 have lost, and 11 are still being counted.

Seventeen won House seats. Three are headed to the Senate:

• Barry Moore of Alabama,
• Andy Barr of Kentucky, and
• Harriet Hageman of Wyoming.

Six of the nine losses were challengers in Democratic-held districts, including Derek Merrin, who ran against Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio. Jenny Honeycutt came up short in the open race for South Carolina’s 1st District. The other two were the Senate races in Georgia, where Rep. Mike Collins lost to Sen. Jon Ossoff, and Texas, where Ken Paxton lost to James Talarico. Both finished well short of the margins Republicans posted in those states in 2024. So did Republican candidates almost everywhere else on Tuesday.

Eleven races are still open. Mark Lamb in Arizona and Rep. Ken Calvert in California lead. Rep. Scott DesJarlais trails by a few hundred votes in Tennessee. We’ll update these results as the counts finish.

The next Congress will have fewer allies

Of the 22 competitive races with a clear contrast in immigration positions that we identified, the weaker immigration candidate has won 16 of the 17 called so far. The one exception is Nebraska, where Sen. Pete Ricketts held off Dan Osborn.

Eight of those 16 are Senate seats: Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

In the House, Reps. Ryan Mackenzie (B Grade) and Scott Perry (A Grade) lost in Pennsylvania, and all six F-graded Democratic incumbents on this list, in Alabama, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, kept their seats.

Five races are still undecided.

We will likely lose some champions

True Reformer Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) lost his bid for Senate against the incumbent Jon Ossoff and will not be returning to Congress. Collins was the House sponsor of the Laken Riley Act, as well as the SAFE Act to end the visa lottery.

As I write this, True Reformer Rep. Eli Crane (AZ-02) trails by a few hundred votes with about 80% counted. Crane introduced the End H-1B Visa Abuse Act and the Nuclear Family Priority Act to end chain migration this Congress – both of which are among NumbersUSA’s highest priorities.

Voters said yes to citizen-only voting

Voters in five states approved measures limiting voting to U.S. citizens: West Virginia (77%), Alaska (70%), Arkansas (68%), Kansas (63%), and South Dakota (61.5%). Arizona’s Proposition 144, which also adds a voter ID requirement, was trailing narrowly as of Wednesday morning.

We will be fighting efforts to defund or abolish ICE

The exit polling shows no mandate for dismantling, defunding, or abolishing immigration enforcement. Seventy-two percent of voters said immigration enforcement was crucial or a major factor in their House vote. Reporting indicates that aside from trying to soften interior enforcement tactics (which DHS under Secretary Mullin has already done), Democratic leadership does not intend to prioritize immigration policy.

But there is a group within the Democratic Party that intends to push leadership to effectively stop interior enforcement.

In the House, 31 Democrats have cosponsored bills to abolish or dismantle ICE, and 65 more are on bills that would strip the $74.85 billion Congress approved for ICE detention and enforcement. All but two hold seats in safe districts and none of the 96 have lost.

In the Senate, Peggy Flanagan won Minnesota’s seat after promising to “rip ICE apart,” and Massachusetts reelected Ed Markey, who has called for abolishing the agency. Michigan’s new Senator Abdul El-Sayed made abolition an explicit demand.

These members will be part of the new majority. Some will claim a mandate on ICE that voters did not give them.

Will the next Congress be able to keep this group from throwing the country back into another immigration crisis? How will this outgoing Congress use its final days to give American families an immigration system that prioritizes their interests?

The answers to these questions will be shaped by the actions we take together. Our job doesn’t end at the ballot box. The voices we need most in Washington are our own.