The 22 competitive races where the immigration contrast is sharpest. Plus two safe seats with a True Reformer on the ballot.
Published by
Joe Jenkins
Election Day is less than three weeks away, and early voting has already begun in Arizona, Ohio and other states. For years our members in safe districts have asked the same question: nothing is happening where I live, so where can I help? The list below is the answer for 2026.
By listing these races we are not endorsing anyone. We measure one thing: where each candidate stands on immigration, by stated position and by record. Then we report who is better on that yardstick. In each race below the two candidates stand far apart on the issues we track: border security, E-Verify, protections for American workers, amnesty, sanctuary policies, chain migration, the visa lottery and more.
The races are competitive by an outside measure, not ours. All but two are rated Toss Up, Lean or Likely by the Cook Political Report in its House ratings of Oct. 9 and Senate ratings of Oct. 6, meaning Cook does not consider them safe for either side. Cook’s rating appears after each race. The two exceptions, both safe seats with a True Reformer on the ballot, are listed last.
Each race name links to its comparison page. Incumbents and former members carry a grade from the NumbersUSA grade cards, which score committee votes, floor votes and cosponsorships. Candidates without a voting record are rated on their campaign statements, past votes in other offices and, where they returned it, our 11-question candidate survey. A True Reformer is a candidate who has pledged support on all 11 issues or has proven it in office.
House races
Alabama-2 (Likely R): Rhett Marques vs. Rep. Shomari Figures (F-).

Arizona-1 (Lean D): Jay Feely vs. Amish Shah for an open seat.

Arizona-2 (Likely R): Rep. Eli Crane (A, True Reformer) vs. Jonathan Nez.

Arizona-6 (Toss Up): Rep. Juan Ciscomani (C) vs. JoAnna Mendoza. Ciscomani’s record is mixed, but Mendoza is on the other side of every issue she has taken a position on.

Colorado-5 (Lean R): Rep. Jeff Crank (B) vs. Jessica Killin.

Florida-14 (Toss Up): Mike Beltran vs. Rep. Kathy Castor (F-).

Michigan-7 (Toss Up): Rep. Tom Barrett (B) vs. William Lawrence.

Nevada-3 (Likely D): Marty O’Donnell vs. Rep. Susie Lee (F).

North Carolina-1 (Toss Up): Laurie Buckhout vs. Rep. Don Davis (F).

Ohio-9 (Toss Up): Derek Merrin (True Reformer) vs. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (F). This is the widest gap on the list.

Pennsylvania-7 (Lean D): Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (B) vs. Bob Brooks.

Pennsylvania-10 (Lean D): Rep. Scott Perry (A) vs. Janelle Stelson.

Texas-34 (Toss Up): Eric Flores vs. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (F).

Senate races
Georgia (Likely D): Rep. Mike Collins (A+, True Reformer) vs. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-).

Iowa (Toss Up): Rep. Ashley Hinson (B) vs. Josh Turek.

Michigan (Toss Up): Mike Rogers (career B) vs. Abdul El-Sayed. Rogers earned his grade over 14 years in the House.

Minnesota (Likely D): Michele Tafoya vs. Peggy Flanagan.

Nebraska (Likely R): Sen. Pete Ricketts (B) vs. Dan Osborn.

New Hampshire (Lean D): John Sununu (career C+) vs. Rep. Chris Pappas (F). Sununu’s grade dates to his earlier House and Senate service.

North Carolina (Likely D): Michael Whatley vs. Roy Cooper.

Ohio (Toss Up): Sen. Jon Husted (C) vs. Sherrod Brown (career F). Husted has a short record so far. Brown’s 18 years in the Senate produced an F.

Texas (Toss Up): Ken Paxton (True Reformer) vs. James Talarico.

Two safe seats with a True Reformer on the ballot
Arizona-5 (Solid R): Mark Lamb (True Reformer) vs. Elizabeth Lee.

California-40 (Solid R): Rep. Ken Calvert (A, True Reformer) vs. Rep. Young Kim (D+), two sitting members drawn into one district.

Our staff have updated comparison pages for every House district and every state with a Senate race this year, and the pages change as candidates say more. We email the comparisons to members in each district and will keep doing so through Election Day. If you know voters in any of these states or districts, send them the comparison. A grid takes ten seconds to read and says more than most campaign ads. Whoever wins these seats will cast the votes that decide whether immigration policy is written with American workers in mind.
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